Our side
MoneylineLIB to win
ours 73%
Projected score
21–28
SHSU – LIB
2026-10-08 · 7:00 PM
Williams Stadium (VA) · Lynchburg, VA
CUSA game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Liberty and Sam Houston split 2 (1–1)
· 2 meetings since 2023
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Sam Houston Bearkats
58 ranks
Sam Houston Bearkats #152 rush offense
Liberty Flames #210 run defense
Pass game
edge Liberty Flames
146 ranks
Sam Houston Bearkats #259 pass offense
Liberty Flames #113 pass defense
Run game
edge Liberty Flames
152 ranks
Liberty Flames #55 rush offense
Sam Houston Bearkats #207 run defense
Pass game
edge Liberty Flames
69 ranks
Liberty Flames #171 pass offense
Sam Houston Bearkats #240 pass defense
Sam Houston Bearkats
Balanced · 50% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 39 rush ypg
Liberty Flames
Run-heavy · 66% run
Avg pace
Phil Longo · 2-10
Jamey Chadwell · 64-35
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Sam Houston Bearkats
DL
Brody Henderson
11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#94 DL
WR
Chris Reed
7 rec · 145 yds · 2 TD
#94 WR
WR
Grady O'Neill
12 rec · 148 yds · 1 TD
#103 WR
DB
Ishmel Atkins
7 tkl · 4 PD
#254 DB
Liberty Flames
WR
Makai Jackson
5 rec · 142 yds · 2 TD
#139 WR
DB
Jiquavious Marshall
7 tkl · 4 PD
#222 DB
DL
Nathan Pirolli
8 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#305 DL
LB
Derrell Farrar
12 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#247 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Sam Houston offense vs Liberty defense-10.1 pts
Liberty offense vs Sam Houston defense-2.2 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,041 mi
Rest · context onlyAway team on 6 more days rest
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.