← Matchups

Sam Houston

CUSA · 0-2 · power -5.4 · #248
Our numberLIB -6.1 no book has priced this game

Liberty

CUSA · 1-1 · power +2.6 · #144
Our side
MoneylineLIB to win ours 73%
Projected score 21–28 SHSU – LIB
2026-10-08 · 7:00 PM Williams Stadium (VA) · Lynchburg, VA CUSA game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Liberty and Sam Houston split 2 (1–1) · 2 meetings since 2023
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Sam Houston Bearkats 58 ranks
Sam Houston Bearkats #152 rush offense Liberty Flames #210 run defense
Pass game edge Liberty Flames 146 ranks
Sam Houston Bearkats #259 pass offense Liberty Flames #113 pass defense
Run game edge Liberty Flames 152 ranks
Liberty Flames #55 rush offense Sam Houston Bearkats #207 run defense
Pass game edge Liberty Flames 69 ranks
Liberty Flames #171 pass offense Sam Houston Bearkats #240 pass defense
Sam Houston Bearkats Balanced · 50% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 39 rush ypg Liberty Flames Run-heavy · 66% run Avg pace
Phil Longo · 2-10 Jamey Chadwell · 64-35

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Sam Houston Bearkats
DL Brody Henderson 11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #94 DL
WR Chris Reed 7 rec · 145 yds · 2 TD #94 WR
WR Grady O'Neill 12 rec · 148 yds · 1 TD #103 WR
DB Ishmel Atkins 7 tkl · 4 PD #254 DB
Liberty Flames
WR Makai Jackson 5 rec · 142 yds · 2 TD #139 WR
DB Jiquavious Marshall 7 tkl · 4 PD #222 DB
DL Nathan Pirolli 8 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL #305 DL
LB Derrell Farrar 12 tkl · 1.5 TFL #247 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Sam Houston BearkatsCUSA -5.4 -4.3 -1.1 #248
Liberty FlamesCUSA +2.6 -3.3 +5.9 #144

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Sam Houston offense vs Liberty defense-10.1 pts
Liberty offense vs Sam Houston defense-2.2 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,041 mi
Rest · context onlyAway team on 6 more days rest

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.