Our side
MoneylineLIB to win
ours 47%
Projected score
25–25
LIB – NMSU
2026-11-07 · 5:00 PM
Aggie Memorial Stadium · Las Cruces, NM
CUSA game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Liberty lead
7–2
· 9 meetings since 2018
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
15 ranks apart
Liberty Flames #55 rush offense
New Mexico State Aggies #40 run defense
Pass game
even
30 ranks apart
Liberty Flames #171 pass offense
New Mexico State Aggies #141 pass defense
Run game
edge Liberty Flames
52 ranks
New Mexico State Aggies #262 rush offense
Liberty Flames #210 run defense
Pass game
edge Liberty Flames
78 ranks
New Mexico State Aggies #191 pass offense
Liberty Flames #113 pass defense
Liberty Flames
Run-heavy · 66% run
Avg pace
New Mexico State Aggies
Balanced · 47% run
Avg pace
Jamey Chadwell · 64-35
Tony Sanchez · 27-57 · defense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Liberty Flames
WR
Makai Jackson
5 rec · 142 yds · 2 TD
#139 WR
DB
Jiquavious Marshall
7 tkl · 4 PD
#222 DB
DL
Nathan Pirolli
8 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#305 DL
LB
Derrell Farrar
12 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#247 LB
New Mexico State Aggies
DB
Nick Session
21 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#19 DB
DL
Gabe Peterson
13 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#63 DL
WR
TK King
14 rec · 239 yds · 2 TD
#48 WR
RB
James Jones
243 rush yds · 2 TD · 4 rec
#43 RB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Liberty offense vs New Mexico State defense-3.4 pts
New Mexico State offense vs Liberty defense-6.6 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,596 mi
Altitude · context only937 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
Rest · context onlyHome team on 3 more days rest
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.