Our side
MoneylineMOST to win
ours 71%
Projected score
21–30
NMSU – MOST
2026-11-14 · 3:00 PM
Robert W. Plaster Stadium · Springfield, MO
CUSA game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Missouri State lead
1–0
· 1 meeting since 2025
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Missouri State Bears
70 ranks
New Mexico State Aggies #262 rush offense
Missouri State Bears #192 run defense
Pass game
even
9 ranks apart
New Mexico State Aggies #191 pass offense
Missouri State Bears #200 pass defense
Run game
edge New Mexico State Aggies
147 ranks
Missouri State Bears #187 rush offense
New Mexico State Aggies #40 run defense
Pass game
edge Missouri State Bears
51 ranks
Missouri State Bears #90 pass offense
New Mexico State Aggies #141 pass defense
New Mexico State Aggies
Balanced · 47% run
Avg pace
Missouri State Bears
Balanced · 49% run
Avg pace
Tony Sanchez · 27-57 · defense-minded
Ryan Beard · 7-5 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
New Mexico State Aggies
DB
Nick Session
21 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#19 DB
DL
Gabe Peterson
13 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#63 DL
WR
TK King
14 rec · 239 yds · 2 TD
#48 WR
RB
James Jones
243 rush yds · 2 TD · 4 rec
#43 RB
Missouri State Bears
LB
Jared Lloyd
19 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#39 LB
DB
Joel Boamah
8 tkl · 3 PD
#197 DB
WR
Isaiah Myers
5 rec · 155 yds · 1 TD
#141 WR
DB
Anthony Mattison
6 tkl · 1 PD
#367 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
New Mexico State offense vs Missouri State defense-3.4 pts
Missouri State offense vs New Mexico State defense+3.8 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 835 mi
Altitude · context only806 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.