← Matchups

Merrimack

· 1-2 · power -14.3 · #337

Our numberYALE -22.5 ~~no book has priced this game~~

Yale

· power +4.7 · #126

Our side

MoneylineYALE to win ours 92%

Projected score 14–36 MRMK – YALE

2026-10-03 · 12:00 PM Yale Bowl · New Haven, CT Preseason estimate

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

First recorded meeting between these programs

2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played

Run game edge Yale Bulldogs ~~55 ranks~~

Merrimack Warriors #99 rush offense Yale Bulldogs #44 run defense

Pass game edge Yale Bulldogs ~~129 ranks~~

Merrimack Warriors #233 pass offense Yale Bulldogs #104 pass defense

Run game even ~~15 ranks apart~~

Yale Bulldogs #134 rush offense Merrimack Warriors #149 run defense

Pass game edge Yale Bulldogs ~~119 ranks~~

Yale Bulldogs #64 pass offense Merrimack Warriors #183 pass defense

Merrimack Warriors Run-heavy · 62% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 71 rush ypg Yale Bulldogs Run-heavy · 63% run Avg pace

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025

Merrimack Warriors

DB Danny Simms 22 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #27 DB

DB Bertin Placide 7 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT #218 DB

DL Dwayne Green Jr 9 tkl · 1.5 TFL #317 DL

DB Juice Ricks 4 tkl · 1 INT #303 DB

Yale Bulldogs

No graded players for this team in 2025.

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown

Team	Power	Off	Def	Rank
Merrimack Warriors	-14.3	-12.6	-1.8	#337
Yale Bulldogs	+4.7	+1.8	+2.9	#126

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from

Merrimack offense vs Yale defense-15.5 pts

Yale offense vs Merrimack defense+3.5 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.