Our side
MoneylineNMSU to win
ours 54%
Projected score
29–28
WKU – NMSU
2026-10-01 · 8:00 PM
Aggie Memorial Stadium · Las Cruces, NM
CUSA game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Western Kentucky lead
2–1
· 3 meetings since 2023
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge New Mexico State Aggies
105 ranks
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers #145 rush offense
New Mexico State Aggies #40 run defense
Pass game
even
6 ranks apart
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers #135 pass offense
New Mexico State Aggies #141 pass defense
Run game
edge Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
141 ranks
New Mexico State Aggies #262 rush offense
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers #121 run defense
Pass game
edge Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
115 ranks
New Mexico State Aggies #191 pass offense
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers #76 pass defense
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Balanced · 49% run
Avg pace
New Mexico State Aggies
Balanced · 47% run
Avg pace
Tyson Helton · 57-36
Tony Sanchez · 27-57 · defense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
RB
Ajay Allen
121 rush yds · 2 TD · 3 rec
#106 RB
DB
Justin Brown
9 tkl · 1 INT
#319 DB
TE
Coleson Arends
2 rec · 18 yds · 1 TD
#92 TE
DB
Jaylen Lewis
13 tkl
#491 DB
New Mexico State Aggies
DB
Nick Session
21 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#19 DB
DL
Gabe Peterson
13 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#63 DL
WR
TK King
14 rec · 239 yds · 2 TD
#48 WR
RB
James Jones
243 rush yds · 2 TD · 4 rec
#43 RB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Western Kentucky offense vs New Mexico State defense+5.4 pts
New Mexico State offense vs Western Kentucky defense+5.0 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,195 mi
Altitude · context only1,056 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.