Our side
MoneylineMOST to win
ours 38%
Projected score
30–26
MOST – WKU
2026-10-08 · 7:00 PM
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium · Bowling Green, KY
CUSA game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Western Kentucky lead
5–0
· 5 meetings since 2003
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
66 ranks
Missouri State Bears #187 rush offense
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers #121 run defense
Pass game
even
14 ranks apart
Missouri State Bears #90 pass offense
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers #76 pass defense
Run game
edge Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
47 ranks
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers #145 rush offense
Missouri State Bears #192 run defense
Pass game
edge Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
65 ranks
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers #135 pass offense
Missouri State Bears #200 pass defense
Missouri State Bears
Balanced · 49% run
Avg pace
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Balanced · 49% run
Avg pace
Ryan Beard · 7-5 · offense-minded
Tyson Helton · 57-36
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Missouri State Bears
LB
Jared Lloyd
19 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#39 LB
DB
Joel Boamah
8 tkl · 3 PD
#197 DB
WR
Isaiah Myers
5 rec · 155 yds · 1 TD
#141 WR
DB
Anthony Mattison
6 tkl · 1 PD
#367 DB
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
RB
Ajay Allen
121 rush yds · 2 TD · 3 rec
#106 RB
DB
Justin Brown
9 tkl · 1 INT
#319 DB
TE
Coleson Arends
2 rec · 18 yds · 1 TD
#92 TE
DB
Jaylen Lewis
13 tkl
#491 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Missouri State offense vs Western Kentucky defense+9.6 pts
Western Kentucky offense vs Missouri State defense+2.8 pts
Rest · context onlyAway team on 5 more days rest
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.