← Matchups

Florida International

CUSA · 1-1 · power +5.3 · #119
Our numberJXST -2.7 no book has priced this game

Jacksonville State

CUSA · 1-2 · power +5.2 · #123
Our side
MoneylineJXST to win ours 54%
Projected score 25–28 FIU – JXST
2026-10-13 · 8:00 PM AmFirst Stadium · Jacksonville, AL CUSA game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Jacksonville State lead 3–1 · 4 meetings since 2020
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 37 ranks apart
Florida International Panthers #69 rush offense Jacksonville State Gamecocks #106 run defense
Pass game edge Jacksonville State Gamecocks 53 ranks
Florida International Panthers #162 pass offense Jacksonville State Gamecocks #109 pass defense
Run game edge Jacksonville State Gamecocks 91 ranks
Jacksonville State Gamecocks #48 rush offense Florida International Panthers #139 run defense
Pass game even 15 ranks apart
Jacksonville State Gamecocks #156 pass offense Florida International Panthers #171 pass defense
Florida International Panthers Balanced · 56% run Ball-control Jacksonville State Gamecocks Run-heavy · 68% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 83 rush ypg
Willie Simmons · 7-6 Charles Kelly · 9-5

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Florida International Panthers
DL Elisha Baldridge 11 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #26 DL
WR Maguire Anderson 13 rec · 186 yds · 2 TD #34 WR
DL DeeJay Holmes Jr. 7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #81 DL
WR Jojo Stone 9 rec · 141 yds · 1 TD #146 WR
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
DB Caleb Nix 18 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #18 DB
DL Tae Floyd 12 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 5.0 TFL #41 DL
WR Jamill Williams 14 rec · 188 yds · 4 TD #33 WR
QB Caden Creel 677 pass yds · 6 TD · 2 INT #18 QB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Florida International PanthersCUSA +5.3 -0.2 +5.5 #119
Jacksonville State GamecocksCUSA +5.2 +2.1 +3.1 #123

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Florida International offense vs Jacksonville State defense-3.3 pts
Jacksonville State offense vs Florida International defense-3.4 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 644 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.