Our side
MoneylineFIU to win
ours 68%
Projected score
22–30
NMSU – FIU
2026-10-07 · 7:30 PM
Pitbull Stadium · Miami, FL
CUSA game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
New Mexico State and Florida International split 4 (2–2)
· 4 meetings since 2004
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Florida International Panthers
123 ranks
New Mexico State Aggies #262 rush offense
Florida International Panthers #139 run defense
Pass game
even
20 ranks apart
New Mexico State Aggies #191 pass offense
Florida International Panthers #171 pass defense
Run game
even
29 ranks apart
Florida International Panthers #69 rush offense
New Mexico State Aggies #40 run defense
Pass game
even
21 ranks apart
Florida International Panthers #162 pass offense
New Mexico State Aggies #141 pass defense
New Mexico State Aggies
Balanced · 47% run
Avg pace
Florida International Panthers
Balanced · 56% run
Ball-control
Tony Sanchez · 27-57 · defense-minded
Willie Simmons · 7-6
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
New Mexico State Aggies
DB
Nick Session
21 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#19 DB
DL
Gabe Peterson
13 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#63 DL
WR
TK King
14 rec · 239 yds · 2 TD
#48 WR
RB
James Jones
243 rush yds · 2 TD · 4 rec
#43 RB
Florida International Panthers
DL
Elisha Baldridge
11 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#26 DL
WR
Maguire Anderson
13 rec · 186 yds · 2 TD
#34 WR
DL
DeeJay Holmes Jr.
7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#81 DL
WR
Jojo Stone
9 rec · 141 yds · 1 TD
#146 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
New Mexico State offense vs Florida International defense-6.2 pts
Florida International offense vs New Mexico State defense-0.3 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,651 mi
Altitude · context only1,206 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
Rest · context onlyHome team on 5 more days rest
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.