Our side
MoneylineWKU to win
ours 42%
Projected score
30–25
WKU – SHSU
2026-10-14 · 8:00 PM
Elliott T. Bowers Stadium · Huntsville, TX
CUSA game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Western Kentucky lead
3–1
· 4 meetings since 2004
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
62 ranks
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers #145 rush offense
Sam Houston Bearkats #207 run defense
Pass game
edge Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
105 ranks
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers #135 pass offense
Sam Houston Bearkats #240 pass defense
Run game
even
31 ranks apart
Sam Houston Bearkats #152 rush offense
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers #121 run defense
Pass game
edge Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
183 ranks
Sam Houston Bearkats #259 pass offense
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers #76 pass defense
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Balanced · 49% run
Avg pace
Sam Houston Bearkats
Balanced · 50% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 39 rush ypg
Tyson Helton · 57-36
Phil Longo · 2-10
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
RB
Ajay Allen
121 rush yds · 2 TD · 3 rec
#106 RB
DB
Justin Brown
9 tkl · 1 INT
#319 DB
TE
Coleson Arends
2 rec · 18 yds · 1 TD
#92 TE
DB
Jaylen Lewis
13 tkl
#491 DB
Sam Houston Bearkats
DL
Brody Henderson
11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#94 DL
WR
Chris Reed
7 rec · 145 yds · 2 TD
#94 WR
WR
Grady O'Neill
12 rec · 148 yds · 1 TD
#103 WR
DB
Ishmel Atkins
7 tkl · 4 PD
#254 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Western Kentucky offense vs Sam Houston defense+6.6 pts
Sam Houston offense vs Western Kentucky defense+1.4 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 677 mi
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.