Our side
MoneylineNMSU to win
ours 43%
Projected score
25–26
NMSU – SHSU
2026-10-21 · 8:00 PM
Elliott T. Bowers Stadium · Huntsville, TX
CUSA game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
New Mexico State lead
2–1
· 3 meetings since 2023
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Sam Houston Bearkats
55 ranks
New Mexico State Aggies #262 rush offense
Sam Houston Bearkats #207 run defense
Pass game
edge New Mexico State Aggies
49 ranks
New Mexico State Aggies #191 pass offense
Sam Houston Bearkats #240 pass defense
Run game
edge New Mexico State Aggies
112 ranks
Sam Houston Bearkats #152 rush offense
New Mexico State Aggies #40 run defense
Pass game
edge New Mexico State Aggies
118 ranks
Sam Houston Bearkats #259 pass offense
New Mexico State Aggies #141 pass defense
New Mexico State Aggies
Balanced · 47% run
Avg pace
Sam Houston Bearkats
Balanced · 50% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 39 rush ypg
Tony Sanchez · 27-57 · defense-minded
Phil Longo · 2-10
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
New Mexico State Aggies
DB
Nick Session
21 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#19 DB
DL
Gabe Peterson
13 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#63 DL
WR
TK King
14 rec · 239 yds · 2 TD
#48 WR
RB
James Jones
243 rush yds · 2 TD · 4 rec
#43 RB
Sam Houston Bearkats
DL
Brody Henderson
11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#94 DL
WR
Chris Reed
7 rec · 145 yds · 2 TD
#94 WR
WR
Grady O'Neill
12 rec · 148 yds · 1 TD
#103 WR
DB
Ishmel Atkins
7 tkl · 4 PD
#254 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
New Mexico State offense vs Sam Houston defense+0.4 pts
Sam Houston offense vs New Mexico State defense-4.4 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 668 mi
Altitude · context only1,082 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.