Our side
MoneylineMOST to win
ours 80%
Projected score
20–31
SHSU – MOST
2026-10-27 · 8:00 PM
Robert W. Plaster Stadium · Springfield, MO
CUSA game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Sam Houston and Missouri State split 2 (1–1)
· 2 meetings since 2004
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
40 ranks apart
Sam Houston Bearkats #152 rush offense
Missouri State Bears #192 run defense
Pass game
edge Missouri State Bears
59 ranks
Sam Houston Bearkats #259 pass offense
Missouri State Bears #200 pass defense
Run game
even
20 ranks apart
Missouri State Bears #187 rush offense
Sam Houston Bearkats #207 run defense
Pass game
edge Missouri State Bears
150 ranks
Missouri State Bears #90 pass offense
Sam Houston Bearkats #240 pass defense
Sam Houston Bearkats
Balanced · 50% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 39 rush ypg
Missouri State Bears
Balanced · 49% run
Avg pace
Phil Longo · 2-10
Ryan Beard · 7-5 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Sam Houston Bearkats
DL
Brody Henderson
11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#94 DL
WR
Chris Reed
7 rec · 145 yds · 2 TD
#94 WR
WR
Grady O'Neill
12 rec · 148 yds · 1 TD
#103 WR
DB
Ishmel Atkins
7 tkl · 4 PD
#254 DB
Missouri State Bears
LB
Jared Lloyd
19 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#39 LB
DB
Joel Boamah
8 tkl · 3 PD
#197 DB
WR
Isaiah Myers
5 rec · 155 yds · 1 TD
#141 WR
DB
Anthony Mattison
6 tkl · 1 PD
#367 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Sam Houston offense vs Missouri State defense-7.0 pts
Missouri State offense vs Sam Houston defense+5.1 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 466 mi
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.