← Matchups

Missouri State

CUSA · 1-1 · power +6.7 · #106
Our numberFIU -1.6 no book has priced this game

Florida International

CUSA · 1-1 · power +5.3 · #119
Our side
MoneylineFIU to win ours 51%
Projected score 25–26 MOST – FIU
2026-11-07 · 4:00 PM Pitbull Stadium · Miami, FL CUSA game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Missouri State lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 2025
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Florida International Panthers 48 ranks
Missouri State Bears #187 rush offense Florida International Panthers #139 run defense
Pass game edge Missouri State Bears 81 ranks
Missouri State Bears #90 pass offense Florida International Panthers #171 pass defense
Run game edge Florida International Panthers 123 ranks
Florida International Panthers #69 rush offense Missouri State Bears #192 run defense
Pass game even 38 ranks apart
Florida International Panthers #162 pass offense Missouri State Bears #200 pass defense
Missouri State Bears Balanced · 49% run Avg pace Florida International Panthers Balanced · 56% run Ball-control
Ryan Beard · 7-5 · offense-minded Willie Simmons · 7-6

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Missouri State Bears
LB Jared Lloyd 19 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #39 LB
DB Joel Boamah 8 tkl · 3 PD #197 DB
WR Isaiah Myers 5 rec · 155 yds · 1 TD #141 WR
DB Anthony Mattison 6 tkl · 1 PD #367 DB
Florida International Panthers
DL Elisha Baldridge 11 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #26 DL
WR Maguire Anderson 13 rec · 186 yds · 2 TD #34 WR
DL DeeJay Holmes Jr. 7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #81 DL
WR Jojo Stone 9 rec · 141 yds · 1 TD #146 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Missouri State BearsCUSA +6.7 +3.9 +2.7 #106
Florida International PanthersCUSA +5.3 -0.2 +5.5 #119

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Missouri State offense vs Florida International defense-1.6 pts
Florida International offense vs Missouri State defense-2.9 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,095 mi
Altitude · context only400 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
Rest · context onlyAway team on 4 more days rest

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.