Our side
MoneylineJXST to win
ours 78%
Projected score
20–32
SHSU – JXST
2026-11-07 · 7:00 PM
AmFirst Stadium · Jacksonville, AL
CUSA game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Jacksonville State lead
4–2
· 6 meetings since 2014
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Jacksonville State Gamecocks
46 ranks
Sam Houston Bearkats #152 rush offense
Jacksonville State Gamecocks #106 run defense
Pass game
edge Jacksonville State Gamecocks
150 ranks
Sam Houston Bearkats #259 pass offense
Jacksonville State Gamecocks #109 pass defense
Run game
edge Jacksonville State Gamecocks
159 ranks
Jacksonville State Gamecocks #48 rush offense
Sam Houston Bearkats #207 run defense
Pass game
edge Jacksonville State Gamecocks
84 ranks
Jacksonville State Gamecocks #156 pass offense
Sam Houston Bearkats #240 pass defense
Sam Houston Bearkats
Balanced · 50% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 39 rush ypg
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Run-heavy · 68% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 83 rush ypg
Phil Longo · 2-10
Charles Kelly · 9-5
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Sam Houston Bearkats
DL
Brody Henderson
11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#94 DL
WR
Chris Reed
7 rec · 145 yds · 2 TD
#94 WR
WR
Grady O'Neill
12 rec · 148 yds · 1 TD
#103 WR
DB
Ishmel Atkins
7 tkl · 4 PD
#254 DB
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
DB
Caleb Nix
18 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#18 DB
DL
Tae Floyd
12 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 5.0 TFL
#41 DL
WR
Jamill Williams
14 rec · 188 yds · 4 TD
#33 WR
QB
Caden Creel
677 pass yds · 6 TD · 2 INT
#18 QB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Sam Houston offense vs Jacksonville State defense-7.3 pts
Jacksonville State offense vs Sam Houston defense+3.2 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 610 mi
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.