Our side
MoneylineJXST to win
ours 51%
Projected score
25–27
MOST – JXST
2026-11-21 · 2:00 PM
AmFirst Stadium · Jacksonville, AL
CUSA game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Jacksonville State Gamecocks
81 ranks
Missouri State Bears #187 rush offense
Jacksonville State Gamecocks #106 run defense
Pass game
even
19 ranks apart
Missouri State Bears #90 pass offense
Jacksonville State Gamecocks #109 pass defense
Run game
edge Jacksonville State Gamecocks
144 ranks
Jacksonville State Gamecocks #48 rush offense
Missouri State Bears #192 run defense
Pass game
even
44 ranks apart
Jacksonville State Gamecocks #156 pass offense
Missouri State Bears #200 pass defense
Missouri State Bears
Balanced · 49% run
Avg pace
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Run-heavy · 68% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 83 rush ypg
Ryan Beard · 7-5 · offense-minded
Charles Kelly · 9-5
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Missouri State Bears
LB
Jared Lloyd
19 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#39 LB
DB
Joel Boamah
8 tkl · 3 PD
#197 DB
WR
Isaiah Myers
5 rec · 155 yds · 1 TD
#141 WR
DB
Anthony Mattison
6 tkl · 1 PD
#367 DB
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
DB
Caleb Nix
18 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#18 DB
DL
Tae Floyd
12 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 5.0 TFL
#41 DL
WR
Jamill Williams
14 rec · 188 yds · 4 TD
#33 WR
QB
Caden Creel
677 pass yds · 6 TD · 2 INT
#18 QB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Missouri State offense vs Jacksonville State defense+0.9 pts
Jacksonville State offense vs Missouri State defense-0.6 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 482 mi
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.