← Matchups

Western Kentucky

CUSA · 0-2 · power -0.2 · #186
Our numberLIB -1.3 no book has priced this game

Liberty

CUSA · 1-1 · power +2.6 · #144
Our side
MoneylineLIB to win ours 61%
Projected score 26–28 WKU – LIB
2026-11-21 · 1:00 PM Williams Stadium (VA) · Lynchburg, VA CUSA game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Liberty lead 3–0 · 3 meetings since 2020
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 65 ranks
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers #145 rush offense Liberty Flames #210 run defense
Pass game even 22 ranks apart
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers #135 pass offense Liberty Flames #113 pass defense
Run game edge Liberty Flames 66 ranks
Liberty Flames #55 rush offense Western Kentucky Hilltoppers #121 run defense
Pass game edge Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 95 ranks
Liberty Flames #171 pass offense Western Kentucky Hilltoppers #76 pass defense
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Balanced · 49% run Avg pace Liberty Flames Run-heavy · 66% run Avg pace
Tyson Helton · 57-36 Jamey Chadwell · 64-35

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
RB Ajay Allen 121 rush yds · 2 TD · 3 rec #106 RB
DB Justin Brown 9 tkl · 1 INT #319 DB
TE Coleson Arends 2 rec · 18 yds · 1 TD #92 TE
DB Jaylen Lewis 13 tkl #491 DB
Liberty Flames
WR Makai Jackson 5 rec · 142 yds · 2 TD #139 WR
DB Jiquavious Marshall 7 tkl · 4 PD #222 DB
DL Nathan Pirolli 8 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL #305 DL
LB Derrell Farrar 12 tkl · 1.5 TFL #247 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Western Kentucky HilltoppersCUSA -0.2 +5.5 -5.6 #186
Liberty FlamesCUSA +2.6 -3.3 +5.9 #144

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Western Kentucky offense vs Liberty defense-0.4 pts
Liberty offense vs Western Kentucky defense+2.4 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 402 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.