← Matchups

Sam Houston

CUSA · 0-2 · power -5.4 · #248
Our numberFIU -12.9 no book has priced this game

Florida International

CUSA · 1-1 · power +5.3 · #119
Our side
MoneylineFIU to win ours 78%
Projected score 19–32 SHSU – FIU
2026-11-28 · 2:00 PM Pitbull Stadium · Miami, FL CUSA game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Florida International lead 2–1 · 3 meetings since 2023
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 13 ranks apart
Sam Houston Bearkats #152 rush offense Florida International Panthers #139 run defense
Pass game edge Florida International Panthers 88 ranks
Sam Houston Bearkats #259 pass offense Florida International Panthers #171 pass defense
Run game edge Florida International Panthers 138 ranks
Florida International Panthers #69 rush offense Sam Houston Bearkats #207 run defense
Pass game edge Florida International Panthers 78 ranks
Florida International Panthers #162 pass offense Sam Houston Bearkats #240 pass defense
Sam Houston Bearkats Balanced · 50% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 39 rush ypg Florida International Panthers Balanced · 56% run Ball-control
Phil Longo · 2-10 Willie Simmons · 7-6

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Sam Houston Bearkats
DL Brody Henderson 11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #94 DL
WR Chris Reed 7 rec · 145 yds · 2 TD #94 WR
WR Grady O'Neill 12 rec · 148 yds · 1 TD #103 WR
DB Ishmel Atkins 7 tkl · 4 PD #254 DB
Florida International Panthers
DL Elisha Baldridge 11 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #26 DL
WR Maguire Anderson 13 rec · 186 yds · 2 TD #34 WR
DL DeeJay Holmes Jr. 7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #81 DL
WR Jojo Stone 9 rec · 141 yds · 1 TD #146 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Sam Houston BearkatsCUSA -5.4 -4.3 -1.1 #248
Florida International PanthersCUSA +5.3 -0.2 +5.5 #119

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Sam Houston offense vs Florida International defense-9.8 pts
Florida International offense vs Sam Houston defense+0.9 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 984 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.