← Matchups

Southern Miss

SBC · 1-1 · power +3.5 · #136
Our numberUSM -0.6 no book has priced this game

Troy

SBC · 2-0 · power +2.5 · #146
Our side
MoneylineTROY to win ours 52%
Projected score 26–26 USM – TROY
2026-10-06 · 8:00 PM Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · Troy, AL SBC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Troy lead 6–3 · 9 meetings since 1977
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 28 ranks apart
Southern Miss Golden Eagles #137 rush offense Troy Trojans #109 run defense
Pass game even 27 ranks apart
Southern Miss Golden Eagles #91 pass offense Troy Trojans #64 pass defense
Run game edge Southern Miss Golden Eagles 46 ranks
Troy Trojans #226 rush offense Southern Miss Golden Eagles #180 run defense
Pass game edge Southern Miss Golden Eagles 151 ranks
Troy Trojans #187 pass offense Southern Miss Golden Eagles #36 pass defense
Southern Miss Golden Eagles Balanced · 51% run Avg pace Troy Trojans Balanced · 54% run Avg pace
Charles Huff · 39-25 Gerad Parker · 12-20 · defense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
RB Steven Robinson 174 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec #37 RB
DB Kobi Albert 7 tkl · 1 PD · 3 INT #87 DB
DB Laquan Robinson 17 tkl · 1 PD #192 DB
LB Mathis Haygood 15 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.5 TFL #133 LB
Troy Trojans
DL Keno Jones 13 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 4.5 TFL #22 DL
DB Donnie Smith 9 tkl · 1 PD #63 DB
WR TK Keyes 7 rec · 167 yds · 2 TD #109 WR
RB Jaheim Merriweather 149 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec #79 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Southern Miss Golden EaglesSBC +3.5 +1.6 +1.9 #136
Troy TrojansSBC +2.5 -1.3 +3.8 #146

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Southern Miss offense vs Troy defense-2.3 pts
Troy offense vs Southern Miss defense-3.2 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.