Our side
MoneylineUSA to win
ours 49%
Projected score
27–26
USA – MRSH
2026-10-20 · 7:30 PM
Joan C. Edwards Stadium · Huntington, WV
SBC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
South Alabama lead
1–0
· 1 meeting since 2023
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
23 ranks apart
South Alabama Jaguars #92 rush offense
Marshall Thundering Herd #69 run defense
Pass game
even
23 ranks apart
South Alabama Jaguars #127 pass offense
Marshall Thundering Herd #150 pass defense
Run game
even
44 ranks apart
Marshall Thundering Herd #172 rush offense
South Alabama Jaguars #216 run defense
Pass game
edge Marshall Thundering Herd
155 ranks
Marshall Thundering Herd #61 pass offense
South Alabama Jaguars #216 pass defense
South Alabama Jaguars
Run-heavy · 64% run
Avg pace
Marshall Thundering Herd
Run-heavy · 62% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 60 rush ypg
Major Applewhite · 26-25 · offense-minded
Tony Gibson · 5-7
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
South Alabama Jaguars
WR
Brendan Jenkins
14 rec · 197 yds · 2 TD
#25 WR
RB
PJ Martin
142 rush yds · 2 TD · 5 rec
#59 RB
QB
Bishop Davenport
450 pass yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
#34 QB
K
Davis Little
4 FG · 7 XP · 19 pts
#39 K
Marshall Thundering Herd
DB
Caleb Clark-Glover
20 tkl · 2 PD
#50 DB
DL
Kelvon McBride
6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#91 DL
TE
Toby Payne
9 rec · 61 yds
#49 TE
DL
Nate Blanc
2 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#323 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
South Alabama offense vs Marshall defense+4.3 pts
Marshall offense vs South Alabama defense+1.9 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 626 mi
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.