Our side
MoneylineUSA to win
ours 66%
Projected score
23–27
TROY – USA
2026-11-14 · kickoff TBD
Hancock Whitney Stadium · Mobile, AL
SBC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Troy lead
10–4
· 14 meetings since 2012
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
10 ranks apart
Troy Trojans #226 rush offense
South Alabama Jaguars #216 run defense
Pass game
even
29 ranks apart
Troy Trojans #187 pass offense
South Alabama Jaguars #216 pass defense
Run game
even
17 ranks apart
South Alabama Jaguars #92 rush offense
Troy Trojans #109 run defense
Pass game
edge Troy Trojans
63 ranks
South Alabama Jaguars #127 pass offense
Troy Trojans #64 pass defense
Troy Trojans
Balanced · 54% run
Avg pace
South Alabama Jaguars
Run-heavy · 64% run
Avg pace
Gerad Parker · 12-20 · defense-minded
Major Applewhite · 26-25 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Troy Trojans
DL
Keno Jones
13 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 4.5 TFL
#22 DL
DB
Donnie Smith
9 tkl · 1 PD
#63 DB
WR
TK Keyes
7 rec · 167 yds · 2 TD
#109 WR
RB
Jaheim Merriweather
149 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec
#79 RB
South Alabama Jaguars
WR
Brendan Jenkins
14 rec · 197 yds · 2 TD
#25 WR
RB
PJ Martin
142 rush yds · 2 TD · 5 rec
#59 RB
QB
Bishop Davenport
450 pass yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
#34 QB
K
Davis Little
4 FG · 7 XP · 19 pts
#39 K
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Troy offense vs South Alabama defense-3.2 pts
South Alabama offense vs Troy defense+1.8 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.