← Matchups

Northeastern State

· power -13.2 · #331
Our numberWEST -20.9 no book has priced this game

West Florida

· 2-0 · power +4.1 · #130
Our side
MoneylineWEST to win ours 90%
Projected score 19–40 NORT – WEST
2026-10-10 · 5:00 PM Pen-Air Field · Pensacola, FL Preseason estimate

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Northeastern State RiverHawks -13.2 -5.1 -8.1 #331
West Florida Argonauts +4.1 +2.6 +1.5 #130

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Northeastern State offense vs West Florida defense-6.6 pts
West Florida offense vs Northeastern State defense+10.7 pts
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.