Virginia Lynchburg
· 0-2 · power -46.1 · #407
Our numberCHIC -37.8
no book has priced this game
Chicago State
· 1-2 · power -12.5 · #323
Our side
MoneylineCHIC to win
ours 99%
Projected score
12–49
VIRG – CHIC
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Power breakdown
| Team | Power | Off | Def | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Lynchburg Dragons |
-46.1 | -20.5 | -25.6 | #407 |
| Chicago State Cougars |
-12.5 | -4.2 | -8.3 | #323 |
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Virginia Lynchburg offense vs Chicago State defense-12.2 pts
Chicago State offense vs Virginia Lynchburg defense+21.4 pts
Rest · context onlyAway team on 21 more days rest
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.