BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

North Carolina

ACC · 2-0 · power +13.1 · #65
Our numberTCU -3.9 no book has priced this game

TCU

B12 · 1-1 · power +17.5 · #46
Final UNC 15 · TCU 10 ML L Spread L Total L our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineTCU to win logged ours 59%

Our number: TCU by 15.2 — TCU to win.

UNC team totalUNC under 18.5 ours 21.5
TCU team totalTCU over 27.5 ours 25.5
no pick

No UNC team-total pick: the spread and total picks put UNC over 18.2, which does not decide 18.5.

no pick

No TCU team-total pick: the spread and total picks put TCU over 33.4, which does not decide 27.5.

Projected score 22–26 UNC – TCU
2026-08-29 · 12:00 PM Aviva Stadium · Dublin · neutral Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book UNC spreadTCU spread OverUnder UNC winTCU win UNC TT overUNC TT under TCU TT overTCU TT under
DraftKings — — — —
FanDuel
BetMGM — —
ESPN Bet
Caesars

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured in-game spread TCU 53% bets · 46% money · money UNC total Over 80% bets · 13% money · money Under ML TCU 94% bets · 63% money
Series North Carolina lead 3–1 · 4 meetings since 1940
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge TCU Horned Frogs 128 ranks
North Carolina Tar Heels #236 rush offense TCU Horned Frogs #108 run defense
Pass game even 1 ranks apart
North Carolina Tar Heels #161 pass offense TCU Horned Frogs #160 pass defense
Run game even 18 ranks apart
TCU Horned Frogs #153 rush offense North Carolina Tar Heels #171 run defense
Pass game edge TCU Horned Frogs 62 ranks
TCU Horned Frogs #36 pass offense North Carolina Tar Heels #98 pass defense
North Carolina Tar Heels Balanced · 53% run Ball-control TCU Horned Frogs Balanced · 49% run Avg pace
Bill Belichick · 4-8 Sonny Dykes · 79-46

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
North Carolina Tar Heels
DL Xavier Lewis 12 tkl · 4.0 sacks · 6.5 TFL #1 DL
DL Jaylen Harvey 8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #59 DL
TE Jelani Thurman 8 rec · 165 yds · 1 TD #15 TE
DB Greg Smith 9 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #255 DB
TCU Horned Frogs
TE Kari Ashley 10 rec · 136 yds · 2 TD #6 TE
DB Teon Parks 1 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #65 DB
DL Ansel Din-Mbuh 6 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL #98 DL
RB Jeremy Payne 221 rush yds · 6 rec #81 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
North Carolina Tar HeelsACC +13.1 -1.9 +15.0 #65
TCU Horned FrogsB12 +17.5 +9.7 +7.9 #46

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
North Carolina offense vs TCU defense-9.8 pts
TCU offense vs North Carolina defense-5.3 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 3,605 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.