Our side
MoneylineKU to win
ours 80%
Projected score
19–33
MTSU – KU
2026-10-03 · kickoff TBD
David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium · Lawrence, KS
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
20 ranks apart
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders #142 rush offense
Kansas Jayhawks #122 run defense
Pass game
edge Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
75 ranks
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders #158 pass offense
Kansas Jayhawks #233 pass defense
Run game
even
41 ranks apart
Kansas Jayhawks #38 rush offense
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders #79 run defense
Pass game
edge Kansas Jayhawks
169 ranks
Kansas Jayhawks #78 pass offense
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders #247 pass defense
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
Kansas Jayhawks
Balanced · 54% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 34 rush ypg
Derek Mason · 30-64
Lance Leipold · 64-68 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
WR
Cam'ron Lacy
17 rec · 190 yds · 2 TD
#37 WR
DB
Kalen Woods
13 tkl · 1 PD
#59 DB
DL
Zeion Simpson-Smith
11 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#286 DL
QB
Roman Gagliano
443 pass yds · 4 TD · 1 INT
#100 QB
Kansas Jayhawks
DL
Leroy Harris III
8 tkl · 4.0 TFL
#49 DL
WR
Nik McMillan
8 rec · 182 yds · 2 TD
#72 WR
DL
David Santiago
9 tkl · 2.5 TFL
#232 DL
QB
Isaiah Marshall
414 pass yds · 4 TD · 2 INT
#64 QB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Middle Tennessee offense vs Kansas defense-3.2 pts
Kansas offense vs Middle Tennessee defense+8.4 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 532 mi
Rest · context onlyHome team on 7 more days rest
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.