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UCF

B12 · 1-1 · power +13.6 · #63
Our numberUCF -5.1 no book has priced this game

Oklahoma State

B12 · 1-1 · power +7.3 · #99
Our side
MoneylineUCF to win ours 40%
Projected score 26–21 UCF – OKST
2026-10-10 · kickoff TBD Boone Pickens Stadium · Stillwater, OK B12 game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series UCF lead 2–0 · 2 meetings since 2023
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge UCF Knights 110 ranks
UCF Knights #111 rush offense Oklahoma State Cowboys #221 run defense
Pass game edge UCF Knights 64 ranks
UCF Knights #180 pass offense Oklahoma State Cowboys #244 pass defense
Run game edge UCF Knights 78 ranks
Oklahoma State Cowboys #257 rush offense UCF Knights #179 run defense
Pass game edge UCF Knights 205 ranks
Oklahoma State Cowboys #244 pass offense UCF Knights #39 pass defense
UCF Knights Balanced · 48% run Ball-control Oklahoma State Cowboys Balanced · 51% run Ball-control
Scott Frost · 40-45 Mike Gundy · 86-46

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
UCF Knights
DB Jayden Williams 5 tkl · 1 INT #124 DB
DL Sincere Edwards 7 tkl · 2.0 TFL #205 DL
LB Lewis Carter 15 tkl · 0.5 TFL #172 LB
LB Tackett Curtis 13 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #200 LB
Oklahoma State Cowboys
WR Wyatt Young 13 rec · 205 yds · 1 TD #44 WR
RB Caleb Hawkins 189 rush yds · 1 TD · 8 rec #56 RB
LB Ethan Wesloski 16 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 0.5 TFL #101 LB
QB Drew Mestemaker 558 pass yds · 3 TD · 4 INT #38 QB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
UCF KnightsB12 +13.6 +2.3 +11.3 #63
Oklahoma State CowboysB12 +7.3 +1.5 +5.9 #99

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
UCF offense vs Oklahoma State defense-3.6 pts
Oklahoma State offense vs UCF defense-9.8 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,060 mi
Rest · context onlyHome team on 7 more days rest

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.