← Matchups

BYU

B12 · 2-0 (1-0 B12) · power +25.1 · #16
Our numberBYU -11.0 no book has priced this game

UCF

B12 · 1-1 · power +13.6 · #63
Our side
MoneylineBYU to win ours 28%
Projected score 28–17 BYU – UCF
2026-10-24 · kickoff TBD Acrisure Bounce House · Orlando, FL B12 game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series BYU lead 4–1 · 5 meetings since 2011
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge BYU Cougars 136 ranks
BYU Cougars #43 rush offense UCF Knights #179 run defense
Pass game edge UCF Knights 60 ranks
BYU Cougars #99 pass offense UCF Knights #39 pass defense
Run game edge BYU Cougars 48 ranks
UCF Knights #111 rush offense BYU Cougars #63 run defense
Pass game edge BYU Cougars 121 ranks
UCF Knights #180 pass offense BYU Cougars #59 pass defense
BYU Cougars Balanced · 57% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 41 rush ypg UCF Knights Balanced · 48% run Ball-control
Kalani Sitake · 84-45 Scott Frost · 40-45

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
BYU Cougars
QB Bear Bachmeier 415 pass yds · 6 TD · 0 INT #12 QB
DL Tausili Akana 4 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 2.5 TFL #171 DL
WR Legend Glasker 6 rec · 139 yds · 2 TD #113 WR
WR Kyler Kasper 8 rec · 93 yds · 2 TD #116 WR
UCF Knights
DB Jayden Williams 5 tkl · 1 INT #124 DB
DL Sincere Edwards 7 tkl · 2.0 TFL #205 DL
LB Lewis Carter 15 tkl · 0.5 TFL #172 LB
LB Tackett Curtis 13 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #200 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
BYU CougarsB12 +25.1 +13.9 +11.2 #16
UCF KnightsB12 +13.6 +2.3 +11.3 #63

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
BYU offense vs UCF defense+2.7 pts
UCF offense vs BYU defense-8.9 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,901 mi
Altitude · context only1,395 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
Rest · context onlyHome team on 7 more days rest

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.