BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

Baylor

B12 · 1-1 · power +17.3 · #47
Our numberBAY -3.2 no book has priced this game

UCF

B12 · 1-1 · power +13.6 · #63
Our side
MoneylineBAY to win ours 46%
Projected score 26–23 BAY – UCF
2026-10-30 · 7:30 PM Acrisure Bounce House · Orlando, FL B12 game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Baylor lead 2–1 · 3 meetings since 2013
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Baylor Bears 111 ranks
Baylor Bears #68 rush offense UCF Knights #179 run defense
Pass game edge UCF Knights 105 ranks
Baylor Bears #144 pass offense UCF Knights #39 pass defense
Run game edge UCF Knights 55 ranks
UCF Knights #111 rush offense Baylor Bears #166 run defense
Pass game edge Baylor Bears 45 ranks
UCF Knights #180 pass offense Baylor Bears #135 pass defense
Baylor Bears Balanced · 42% run Avg pace UCF Knights Balanced · 48% run Ball-control
Dave Aranda · 36-37 Scott Frost · 40-45

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Baylor Bears
WR Gavin Freeman 22 rec · 258 yds · 1 TD #9 WR
DL Garrick Ponder 7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #56 DL
DL Devonte Tezino 4 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #73 DL
DB Devin Turner 9 tkl · 1 PD #235 DB
UCF Knights
DB Jayden Williams 5 tkl · 1 INT #124 DB
DL Sincere Edwards 7 tkl · 2.0 TFL #205 DL
LB Lewis Carter 15 tkl · 0.5 TFL #172 LB
LB Tackett Curtis 13 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #200 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Baylor BearsB12 +17.3 +9.6 +7.7 #47
UCF KnightsB12 +13.6 +2.3 +11.3 #63

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Baylor offense vs UCF defense-1.7 pts
UCF offense vs Baylor defense-5.4 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 973 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.