Our side
MoneylineUCF to win
ours 53%
Projected score
22–26
ASU – UCF
2026-11-14 · kickoff TBD
Acrisure Bounce House · Orlando, FL
B12 game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Arizona State lead
2–0
· 2 meetings since 2002
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Arizona State Sun Devils
83 ranks
Arizona State Sun Devils #96 rush offense
UCF Knights #179 run defense
Pass game
edge UCF Knights
95 ranks
Arizona State Sun Devils #134 pass offense
UCF Knights #39 pass defense
Run game
even
35 ranks apart
UCF Knights #111 rush offense
Arizona State Sun Devils #76 run defense
Pass game
edge Arizona State Sun Devils
98 ranks
UCF Knights #180 pass offense
Arizona State Sun Devils #82 pass defense
Arizona State Sun Devils
Balanced · 55% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 44 rush ypg
UCF Knights
Balanced · 48% run
Ball-control
Kenny Dillingham · 22-17 · defense-minded
Scott Frost · 40-45
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Arizona State Sun Devils
WR
Reed Harris
15 rec · 326 yds · 4 TD
#4 WR
QB
Cutter Boley
641 pass yds · 8 TD · 2 INT
#22 QB
WR
Omarion Miller
17 rec · 131 yds · 1 TD
#86 WR
DB
Montana Warren
10 tkl
#343 DB
UCF Knights
DB
Jayden Williams
5 tkl · 1 INT
#124 DB
DL
Sincere Edwards
7 tkl · 2.0 TFL
#205 DL
LB
Lewis Carter
15 tkl · 0.5 TFL
#172 LB
LB
Tackett Curtis
13 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#200 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Arizona State offense vs UCF defense-0.8 pts
UCF offense vs Arizona State defense-1.3 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,844 mi
Altitude · context only340 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.