BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

UCF

B12 · 1-1 · power +13.6 · #63
Our numberCOLO -4.1 no book has priced this game

Colorado

B12 · 2-0 · power +14.6 · #56
Our side
MoneylineCOLO to win ours 57%
Projected score 21–25 UCF – COLO
2026-11-28 · kickoff TBD Folsom Field · Boulder, CO B12 game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Colorado lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 2024
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge UCF Knights 49 ranks
UCF Knights #111 rush offense Colorado Buffaloes #160 run defense
Pass game edge UCF Knights 65 ranks
UCF Knights #180 pass offense Colorado Buffaloes #245 pass defense
Run game even 21 ranks apart
Colorado Buffaloes #200 rush offense UCF Knights #179 run defense
Pass game edge UCF Knights 115 ranks
Colorado Buffaloes #154 pass offense UCF Knights #39 pass defense
UCF Knights Balanced · 48% run Ball-control Colorado Buffaloes Balanced · 54% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 40 rush ypg
Scott Frost · 40-45 Deion Sanders · 16-21

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
UCF Knights
DB Jayden Williams 5 tkl · 1 INT #124 DB
DL Sincere Edwards 7 tkl · 2.0 TFL #205 DL
LB Lewis Carter 15 tkl · 0.5 TFL #172 LB
LB Tackett Curtis 13 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #200 LB
Colorado Buffaloes
DL Lamont Lester Jr. 7 tkl · 4.0 sacks · 5.0 TFL #19 DL
DL Toby Anene 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #58 DL
DB Randon Fontenette 12 tkl · 1 INT #138 DB
QB Julian Lewis 490 pass yds · 5 TD · 0 INT #44 QB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
UCF KnightsB12 +13.6 +2.3 +11.3 #63
Colorado BuffaloesB12 +14.6 +4.8 +9.7 #56

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
UCF offense vs Colorado defense-7.4 pts
Colorado offense vs UCF defense-6.4 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,576 mi
Altitude · context only1,614 m higher than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.