Our side
MoneylinePITT to win
ours 72%
Projected score
22–28
UNC – PITT
2026-10-10 · kickoff TBD
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
ACC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
North Carolina lead
12–6
· 18 meetings since 1974
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Pittsburgh Panthers
224 ranks
North Carolina Tar Heels #236 rush offense
Pittsburgh Panthers #12 run defense
Pass game
edge Pittsburgh Panthers
60 ranks
North Carolina Tar Heels #161 pass offense
Pittsburgh Panthers #101 pass defense
Run game
even
23 ranks apart
Pittsburgh Panthers #148 rush offense
North Carolina Tar Heels #171 run defense
Pass game
even
28 ranks apart
Pittsburgh Panthers #70 pass offense
North Carolina Tar Heels #98 pass defense
North Carolina Tar Heels
Balanced · 53% run
Ball-control
Pittsburgh Panthers
Balanced · 47% run
Ball-control
Bill Belichick · 4-8
Pat Narduzzi · 80-61
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
North Carolina Tar Heels
DL
Xavier Lewis
12 tkl · 4.0 sacks · 6.5 TFL
#1 DL
DL
Jaylen Harvey
8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#59 DL
TE
Jelani Thurman
8 rec · 165 yds · 1 TD
#15 TE
DB
Greg Smith
9 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#255 DB
Pittsburgh Panthers
QB
Mason Heintschel
665 pass yds · 7 TD · 0 INT
#23 QB
DL
Isaiah Neal
4 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#160 DL
WR
Cataurus Hicks
8 rec · 178 yds · 1 TD
#117 WR
RB
Damon Ferguson Jr.
81 rush yds · 1 TD · 6 rec
#94 RB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
North Carolina offense vs Pittsburgh defense-12.3 pts
Pittsburgh offense vs North Carolina defense-4.8 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.