Our side
MoneylineLOU to win
ours 89%
Projected score
17–38
STAN – LOU
2026-10-31 · kickoff TBD
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · Louisville, KY
ACC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Stanford lead
1–0
· 1 meeting since 2024
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Louisville Cardinals
160 ranks
Stanford Cardinal #254 rush offense
Louisville Cardinals #94 run defense
Pass game
edge Louisville Cardinals
174 ranks
Stanford Cardinal #179 pass offense
Louisville Cardinals #5 pass defense
Run game
even
8 ranks apart
Louisville Cardinals #25 rush offense
Stanford Cardinal #17 run defense
Pass game
even
3 ranks apart
Louisville Cardinals #209 pass offense
Stanford Cardinal #212 pass defense
Stanford Cardinal
Balanced · 53% run
Ball-control
Louisville Cardinals
Balanced · 49% run
Ball-control
Frank Reich · 4-8
Jeff Brohm · 86-51 · defense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Stanford Cardinal
LB
Matt Rose
21 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#51 LB
TE
Benji Blackburn
12 rec · 101 yds
#27 TE
RB
Micah Ford
126 rush yds · 3 TD · 2 rec
#61 RB
DB
Charlie Eckhardt
11 tkl · 1 INT
#226 DB
Louisville Cardinals
QB
Lincoln Kienholz
639 pass yds · 4 TD · 0 INT
#1 QB
WR
Tre Richardson
11 rec · 181 yds · 1 TD
#69 WR
TE
Jaleel Skinner
5 rec · 137 yds · 1 TD
#23 TE
WR
Lawayne McCoy
5 rec · 164 yds · 2 TD
#102 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Stanford offense vs Louisville defense-4.2 pts
Louisville offense vs Stanford defense+13.8 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,975 mi
Rest · context onlyHome team on 6 more days rest
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.