Our side
MoneylineUVA to win
ours 75%
Projected score
18–28
UNC – UVA
2026-11-21 · kickoff TBD
Scott Stadium · Charlottesville, VA
ACC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
North Carolina lead
65–51–4
· 120 meetings since 1902
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Virginia Cavaliers
198 ranks
North Carolina Tar Heels #236 rush offense
Virginia Cavaliers #38 run defense
Pass game
edge Virginia Cavaliers
126 ranks
North Carolina Tar Heels #161 pass offense
Virginia Cavaliers #35 pass defense
Run game
edge Virginia Cavaliers
125 ranks
Virginia Cavaliers #46 rush offense
North Carolina Tar Heels #171 run defense
Pass game
even
30 ranks apart
Virginia Cavaliers #128 pass offense
North Carolina Tar Heels #98 pass defense
North Carolina Tar Heels
Balanced · 53% run
Ball-control
Virginia Cavaliers
Balanced · 53% run
Avg pace
Bill Belichick · 4-8
Tony Elliott · 22-26 · defense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
North Carolina Tar Heels
DL
Xavier Lewis
12 tkl · 4.0 sacks · 6.5 TFL
#1 DL
DL
Jaylen Harvey
8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#59 DL
TE
Jelani Thurman
8 rec · 165 yds · 1 TD
#15 TE
DB
Greg Smith
9 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#255 DB
Virginia Cavaliers
DL
Fisher Camac
6 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 0.5 TFL
#140 DL
DB
Jacobie Henderson
12 tkl · 3 PD
#147 DB
DB
Brandyn Hillman
6 tkl · 3 INT
#152 DB
K
Will Bettridge
3 FG · 11 XP · 20 pts
#36 K
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
North Carolina offense vs Virginia defense-15.7 pts
Virginia offense vs North Carolina defense-6.4 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.