← Matchups

Pittsburgh

ACC · 2-0 · power +20.6 · #34
Our numberLOU -2.8 no book has priced this game

Louisville

ACC · 1-1 · power +21.9 · #26
Our side
MoneylineLOU to win ours 58%
Projected score 27–30 PITT – LOU
2026-11-21 · kickoff TBD L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · Louisville, KY ACC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Louisville and Pittsburgh split 22 (11–11) · 22 meetings since 1976
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Louisville Cardinals 54 ranks
Pittsburgh Panthers #148 rush offense Louisville Cardinals #94 run defense
Pass game edge Louisville Cardinals 65 ranks
Pittsburgh Panthers #70 pass offense Louisville Cardinals #5 pass defense
Run game even 13 ranks apart
Louisville Cardinals #25 rush offense Pittsburgh Panthers #12 run defense
Pass game edge Pittsburgh Panthers 108 ranks
Louisville Cardinals #209 pass offense Pittsburgh Panthers #101 pass defense
Pittsburgh Panthers Balanced · 47% run Ball-control Louisville Cardinals Balanced · 49% run Ball-control
Pat Narduzzi · 80-61 Jeff Brohm · 86-51 · defense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Pittsburgh Panthers
QB Mason Heintschel 665 pass yds · 7 TD · 0 INT #23 QB
DL Isaiah Neal 4 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #160 DL
WR Cataurus Hicks 8 rec · 178 yds · 1 TD #117 WR
RB Damon Ferguson Jr. 81 rush yds · 1 TD · 6 rec #94 RB
Louisville Cardinals
QB Lincoln Kienholz 639 pass yds · 4 TD · 0 INT #1 QB
WR Tre Richardson 11 rec · 181 yds · 1 TD #69 WR
TE Jaleel Skinner 5 rec · 137 yds · 1 TD #23 TE
WR Lawayne McCoy 5 rec · 164 yds · 2 TD #102 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Pittsburgh PanthersACC +20.6 +10.2 +10.4 #34
Louisville CardinalsACC +21.9 +16.3 +5.6 #26

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Pittsburgh offense vs Louisville defense+4.6 pts
Louisville offense vs Pittsburgh defense+5.9 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.