← Matchups

Purdue

B1G · 1-1 · power +9.7 · #87
Our numberILL -12.7 no book has priced this game

Illinois

B1G · 1-1 · power +18.3 · #44
Our side
MoneylineILL to win ours 74%
Projected score 20–33 PUR – ILL
2026-10-03 · kickoff TBD Gies Memorial Stadium · Champaign, IL B1G game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Illinois and Purdue split 100 (47–47–6) · 100 meetings since 1892
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Illinois Fighting Illini 52 ranks
Purdue Boilermakers #112 rush offense Illinois Fighting Illini #60 run defense
Pass game even 21 ranks apart
Purdue Boilermakers #200 pass offense Illinois Fighting Illini #179 pass defense
Run game edge Illinois Fighting Illini 108 ranks
Illinois Fighting Illini #124 rush offense Purdue Boilermakers #232 run defense
Pass game edge Illinois Fighting Illini 215 ranks
Illinois Fighting Illini #38 pass offense Purdue Boilermakers #253 pass defense
Purdue Boilermakers Balanced · 49% run Ball-control Illinois Fighting Illini Balanced · 54% run Ball-control
Barry Odom · 47-43 · offense-minded Bret Bielema · 56-45 · offense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Purdue Boilermakers
RB Fame Ijeboi 201 rush yds · 4 TD · 8 rec #9 RB
DB Don Saunders 10 tkl · 1 INT #38 DB
K Jacobo Echeverria Lozano 6 FG · 8 XP · 26 pts #8 K
DL Jeremy Lewis 5 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 2.5 TFL #64 DL
Illinois Fighting Illini
WR Collin Dixon 17 rec · 236 yds · 5 TD #5 WR
QB Katin Houser 453 pass yds · 6 TD · 1 INT #8 QB
LB Ismael Kante 10 tkl · 0.5 TFL #45 LB
LB Will Holmes 10 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #102 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Purdue BoilermakersB1G +9.7 +7.1 +2.6 #87
Illinois Fighting IlliniB1G +18.3 +9.8 +8.5 #44

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Purdue offense vs Illinois defense-1.4 pts
Illinois offense vs Purdue defense+7.2 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.