Our side
MoneylineILL to win
ours 47%
Projected score
26–24
ILL – MSU
2026-10-10 · kickoff TBD
Spartan Stadium · East Lansing, MI
B1G game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Michigan State lead
27–20–2
· 49 meetings since 1955
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Illinois Fighting Illini
50 ranks
Illinois Fighting Illini #124 rush offense
Michigan State Spartans #174 run defense
Pass game
edge Illinois Fighting Illini
132 ranks
Illinois Fighting Illini #38 pass offense
Michigan State Spartans #170 pass defense
Run game
edge Illinois Fighting Illini
101 ranks
Michigan State Spartans #161 rush offense
Illinois Fighting Illini #60 run defense
Pass game
even
43 ranks apart
Michigan State Spartans #136 pass offense
Illinois Fighting Illini #179 pass defense
Illinois Fighting Illini
Balanced · 54% run
Ball-control
Michigan State Spartans
Balanced · 51% run
Avg pace
Bret Bielema · 56-45 · offense-minded
Jonathan Smith · 43-50
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Illinois Fighting Illini
WR
Collin Dixon
17 rec · 236 yds · 5 TD
#5 WR
QB
Katin Houser
453 pass yds · 6 TD · 1 INT
#8 QB
LB
Ismael Kante
10 tkl · 0.5 TFL
#45 LB
LB
Will Holmes
10 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#102 LB
Michigan State Spartans
DL
Eli Coenen
7 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#21 DL
RB
Cam Edwards
250 rush yds · 3 TD · 3 rec
#18 RB
DL
Kenny Soares Jr.
6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#69 DL
K
Liam Boyd
5 FG · 6 XP · 21 pts
#17 K
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Illinois offense vs Michigan State defense+0.5 pts
Michigan State offense vs Illinois defense-2.4 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.