← Matchups

Illinois

B1G · 1-1 · power +18.3 · #44
Our numberILL -0.6 no book has priced this game

Maryland

B1G · 2-0 · power +13.1 · #64
Our side
MoneylineILL to win ours 42%
Projected score 26–26 ILL – MD
2026-10-31 · kickoff TBD SECU Stadium · College Park, MD B1G game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Maryland and Illinois split 4 (2–2) · 4 meetings since 2018
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 4 ranks apart
Illinois Fighting Illini #124 rush offense Maryland Terrapins #120 run defense
Pass game even 19 ranks apart
Illinois Fighting Illini #38 pass offense Maryland Terrapins #57 pass defense
Run game edge Illinois Fighting Illini 182 ranks
Maryland Terrapins #242 rush offense Illinois Fighting Illini #60 run defense
Pass game edge Maryland Terrapins 62 ranks
Maryland Terrapins #117 pass offense Illinois Fighting Illini #179 pass defense
Illinois Fighting Illini Balanced · 54% run Ball-control Maryland Terrapins Pass-heavy · 38% run Ball-control
Bret Bielema · 56-45 · offense-minded Mike Locksley · 36-44 · defense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Illinois Fighting Illini
WR Collin Dixon 17 rec · 236 yds · 5 TD #5 WR
QB Katin Houser 453 pass yds · 6 TD · 1 INT #8 QB
LB Ismael Kante 10 tkl · 0.5 TFL #45 LB
LB Will Holmes 10 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #102 LB
Maryland Terrapins
WR Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding 14 rec · 187 yds · 2 TD #57 WR
DL Sidney Stewart 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL #147 DL
WR Chris Durr Jr. 16 rec · 147 yds · 1 TD #93 WR
DL Derrick LeBlanc 4 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #202 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Illinois Fighting IlliniB1G +18.3 +9.8 +8.5 #44
Maryland TerrapinsB1G +13.1 +6.7 +6.3 #64

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Illinois offense vs Maryland defense+3.5 pts
Maryland offense vs Illinois defense-1.7 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 606 mi
Rest · context onlyHome team on 7 more days rest

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.