← Matchups

Illinois

B1G · 1-1 · power +18.3 · #44
Our numberUCLA -8.1 no book has priced this game

UCLA

B1G · 2-0 · power +19.9 · #39
Our side
MoneylineUCLA to win ours 58%
Projected score 21–29 ILL – UCLA
2026-11-13 · 9:00 PM Rose Bowl · Pasadena, CA B1G game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series UCLA and Illinois split 12 (6–6) · 12 meetings since 1946
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Illinois Fighting Illini 127 ranks
Illinois Fighting Illini #124 rush offense UCLA Bruins #251 run defense
Pass game edge Illinois Fighting Illini 186 ranks
Illinois Fighting Illini #38 pass offense UCLA Bruins #224 pass defense
Run game even 11 ranks apart
UCLA Bruins #71 rush offense Illinois Fighting Illini #60 run defense
Pass game edge Illinois Fighting Illini 66 ranks
UCLA Bruins #245 pass offense Illinois Fighting Illini #179 pass defense
Illinois Fighting Illini Balanced · 54% run Ball-control UCLA Bruins Balanced · 50% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 46 rush ypg
Bret Bielema · 56-45 · offense-minded Tim Skipper · 9-13

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Illinois Fighting Illini
WR Collin Dixon 17 rec · 236 yds · 5 TD #5 WR
QB Katin Houser 453 pass yds · 6 TD · 1 INT #8 QB
LB Ismael Kante 10 tkl · 0.5 TFL #45 LB
LB Will Holmes 10 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #102 LB
UCLA Bruins
RB Wayne Knight 168 rush yds · 6 TD · 2 rec #7 RB
DB Ta'Shawn James 13 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT #16 DB
LB Sammy Omosigho 19 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #26 LB
LB Jalen Woods 20 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL #31 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Illinois Fighting IlliniB1G +18.3 +9.8 +8.5 #44
UCLA BruinsB1G +19.9 +9.4 +10.5 #39

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Illinois offense vs UCLA defense-0.7 pts
UCLA offense vs Illinois defense+0.9 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,690 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.