Our side · spreadFRES -7our number FRES -11.7 · 4.7 pts from the marketour number starts from the opening line and is corrected -7.0 for this matchup by our data on both teams
San José State
MWC · 2-1 · power +3.5 · #135
Our side
SpreadFRES -7ours FRES -11.7
TotalOver 50.5ours 51.0
MoneylineFRES to winours 40% · book 29%
Distance from the market4.7 pts / +0.5 totala caution, not a signal
Projected score31–20FRES – SJSU
2026-09-19 · 11:00 PMCEFCU Stadium · San Jose, CAMWC gameEarly season
The books 3 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book
Book
FRES spread
SJSU spread
Over
Under
FRES win
SJSU win
FRES TT over
FRES TT under
SJSU TT over
SJSU TT under
DraftKings
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FanDuel
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BetMGM
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The gold price is the best available on that side;
a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick.
TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s;
columns are empty where no book hangs one.
Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked.
Prices are the books’ own.
Ours vs the market
SpreadFresno State -11.7
the marketSan José State +7.0
Total51.0
the market50.5
San José State win40%
vs 29%
Both percentages are San José State’s chance to win — ours, then
the book’s with the vig removed, medianed across the books we track.
What the gap has been worth 10,740 games · 2016–2025
0–3 pts52.0%
3–750.2%
7–1449.3%
14+46.8%
How often the side we favoured covered, by how far our number sat from the
market’s. Break-even at −110 is 52.4% — no bucket reaches it, and
the rate falls as we disagree more. The further we sit from the market, the worse
we have done.
Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Networkcaptured 3 hr agototalOver 80% bets · 13% money · money UnderMLFRES 94% bets · 97% money
Series
Fresno State lead
39–31
· 70 meetings since 1950
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run gameedge San José State Spartans87 ranks
Fresno State Bulldogs #234 rush offenseSan José State Spartans #147 run defense
Pass gameedge Fresno State Bulldogs65 ranks
Fresno State Bulldogs #119 pass offenseSan José State Spartans #184 pass defense
Run gameeven15 ranks apart
San José State Spartans #118 rush offenseFresno State Bulldogs #103 run defense
Pass gameedge Fresno State Bulldogs115 ranks
San José State Spartans #194 pass offenseFresno State Bulldogs #79 pass defense
Fresno State BulldogsRun-heavy · 60% runBall-controlSan José State SpartansPass-heavy · 41% runAvg pace
Matt Entz · 9-4 · defense-mindedKen Niumatalolo · 62-63
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Fresno State offense vs San José State defense-1.7 pts
San José State offense vs Fresno State defense-8.3 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.