Our side
MoneylineSJSU to win
ours 50%
Projected score
25–28
SJSU – HAW
2026-10-03 · 11:59 PM
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · Honolulu, HI
MWC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
San José State lead
22–21–1
· 44 meetings since 1955
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
7 ranks apart
San José State Spartans #118 rush offense
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #125 run defense
Pass game
edge Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
49 ranks
San José State Spartans #194 pass offense
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #145 pass defense
Run game
edge San José State Spartans
58 ranks
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #205 rush offense
San José State Spartans #147 run defense
Pass game
edge Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
87 ranks
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #97 pass offense
San José State Spartans #184 pass defense
San José State Spartans
Pass-heavy · 41% run
Avg pace
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
Ken Niumatalolo · 62-63
Timmy Chang · 22-29
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
San José State Spartans
LB
Dylan Lee
24 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#10 LB
LB
Naseri Danielson
22 tkl
#22 LB
DB
Caleb Womack
25 tkl · 1 INT
#46 DB
QB
Luke Weaver
788 pass yds · 8 TD · 1 INT
#14 QB
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
DB
Kona Moore
30 tkl · 2 PD
#13 DB
RB
DeVon Rice
167 rush yds · 3 TD · 10 rec
#23 RB
LB
Jamih Otis
26 tkl
#53 LB
DB
Matagi Thompson
15 tkl · 4 PD
#122 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
San José State offense vs Hawai'i defense-0.8 pts
Hawai'i offense vs San José State defense-2.2 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.6 pts
Power projection before adjustment+3.2
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 2,412 mi
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.