Our side
MoneylineSJSU to win
ours 71%
Projected score
23–28
WYO – SJSU
2026-10-09 · 9:00 PM
CEFCU Stadium · San Jose, CA
MWC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Wyoming lead
8–7
· 15 meetings since 1959
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge San José State Spartans
75 ranks
Wyoming Cowboys #222 rush offense
San José State Spartans #147 run defense
Pass game
even
38 ranks apart
Wyoming Cowboys #222 pass offense
San José State Spartans #184 pass defense
Run game
even
22 ranks apart
San José State Spartans #118 rush offense
Wyoming Cowboys #96 run defense
Pass game
edge Wyoming Cowboys
168 ranks
San José State Spartans #194 pass offense
Wyoming Cowboys #26 pass defense
Wyoming Cowboys
Balanced · 52% run
Avg pace
San José State Spartans
Pass-heavy · 41% run
Avg pace
Jay Sawvel · 7-17 · defense-minded
Ken Niumatalolo · 62-63
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Wyoming Cowboys
DL
Esaia Bogar
12 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#25 DL
LB
Ethan Stuhlsatz
26 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#18 LB
DB
Jones Thomas
13 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
#94 DB
DL
Jack Dunkley
7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#328 DL
San José State Spartans
LB
Dylan Lee
24 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#10 LB
LB
Naseri Danielson
22 tkl
#22 LB
DB
Caleb Womack
25 tkl · 1 INT
#46 DB
QB
Luke Weaver
788 pass yds · 8 TD · 1 INT
#14 QB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Wyoming offense vs San José State defense-10.7 pts
San José State offense vs Wyoming defense-3.5 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 912 mi
Altitude · context only2,172 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.