Our side
MoneylineSJSU to win
ours 41%
Projected score
28–28
SJSU – UTEP
2026-10-17 · 9:00 PM
Sun Bowl · El Paso, TX
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
San José State and UTEP split 10 (5–5)
· 10 meetings since 1966
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge UTEP Miners
59 ranks
San José State Spartans #118 rush offense
UTEP Miners #59 run defense
Pass game
edge UTEP Miners
80 ranks
San José State Spartans #194 pass offense
UTEP Miners #114 pass defense
Run game
even
30 ranks apart
UTEP Miners #177 rush offense
San José State Spartans #147 run defense
Pass game
edge San José State Spartans
66 ranks
UTEP Miners #250 pass offense
San José State Spartans #184 pass defense
San José State Spartans
Pass-heavy · 41% run
Avg pace
UTEP Miners
Balanced · 50% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 44 rush ypg
Ken Niumatalolo · 62-63
Scotty Walden · 6-22 · defense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
San José State Spartans
LB
Dylan Lee
24 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#10 LB
LB
Naseri Danielson
22 tkl
#22 LB
DB
Caleb Womack
25 tkl · 1 INT
#46 DB
QB
Luke Weaver
788 pass yds · 8 TD · 1 INT
#14 QB
UTEP Miners
TE
Cash Cheeks
3 rec · 51 yds · 2 TD
#55 TE
QB
EJ Colson Jr.
291 pass yds · 4 TD · 0 INT
#73 QB
RB
Tavorus Jones
128 rush yds · 1 TD · 4 rec
#205 RB
DL
Derek Burns
4 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#516 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
San José State offense vs UTEP defense+4.7 pts
UTEP offense vs San José State defense-0.9 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 953 mi
Altitude · context only1,155 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.