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San José State

MWC · 2-1 · power +3.5 · #135
Our numberSJSU -0.1 no book has priced this game

UTEP

CUSA · 1-1 · power -2.1 · #199
Our side
MoneylineSJSU to win ours 41%
Projected score 28–28 SJSU – UTEP
2026-10-17 · 9:00 PM Sun Bowl · El Paso, TX Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series San José State and UTEP split 10 (5–5) · 10 meetings since 1966
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge UTEP Miners 59 ranks
San José State Spartans #118 rush offense UTEP Miners #59 run defense
Pass game edge UTEP Miners 80 ranks
San José State Spartans #194 pass offense UTEP Miners #114 pass defense
Run game even 30 ranks apart
UTEP Miners #177 rush offense San José State Spartans #147 run defense
Pass game edge San José State Spartans 66 ranks
UTEP Miners #250 pass offense San José State Spartans #184 pass defense
San José State Spartans Pass-heavy · 41% run Avg pace UTEP Miners Balanced · 50% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 44 rush ypg
Ken Niumatalolo · 62-63 Scotty Walden · 6-22 · defense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
San José State Spartans
LB Dylan Lee 24 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #10 LB
LB Naseri Danielson 22 tkl #22 LB
DB Caleb Womack 25 tkl · 1 INT #46 DB
QB Luke Weaver 788 pass yds · 8 TD · 1 INT #14 QB
UTEP Miners
TE Cash Cheeks 3 rec · 51 yds · 2 TD #55 TE
QB EJ Colson Jr. 291 pass yds · 4 TD · 0 INT #73 QB
RB Tavorus Jones 128 rush yds · 1 TD · 4 rec #205 RB
DL Derek Burns 4 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #516 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
San José State SpartansMWC +3.5 +2.2 +1.3 #135
UTEP MinersCUSA -2.1 +0.4 -2.5 #199

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
San José State offense vs UTEP defense+4.7 pts
UTEP offense vs San José State defense-0.9 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 953 mi
Altitude · context only1,155 m higher than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.