Our side
MoneylineUNLV to win
ours 38%
Projected score
30–23
UNLV – SJSU
2026-11-21 · 7:00 PM
CEFCU Stadium · San Jose, CA
MWC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
San José State lead
20–8–1
· 29 meetings since 1981
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge UNLV Rebels
127 ranks
UNLV Rebels #20 rush offense
San José State Spartans #147 run defense
Pass game
edge UNLV Rebels
134 ranks
UNLV Rebels #50 pass offense
San José State Spartans #184 pass defense
Run game
edge San José State Spartans
115 ranks
San José State Spartans #118 rush offense
UNLV Rebels #233 run defense
Pass game
edge UNLV Rebels
48 ranks
San José State Spartans #194 pass offense
UNLV Rebels #146 pass defense
UNLV Rebels
Balanced · 52% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 48 rush ypg
San José State Spartans
Pass-heavy · 41% run
Avg pace
Dan Mullen · 67-34 · offense-minded
Ken Niumatalolo · 62-63
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
UNLV Rebels
DB
Tre Fulton
21 tkl · 1 PD
#28 DB
DB
Jake Pope
23 tkl · 1 PD
#62 DB
RB
Jai'Den Thomas
224 rush yds · 1 TD · 7 rec
#69 RB
DB
Denver Harris
10 tkl · 2 PD
#212 DB
San José State Spartans
LB
Dylan Lee
24 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#10 LB
LB
Naseri Danielson
22 tkl
#22 LB
DB
Caleb Womack
25 tkl · 1 INT
#46 DB
QB
Luke Weaver
788 pass yds · 8 TD · 1 INT
#14 QB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
UNLV offense vs San José State defense+0.6 pts
San José State offense vs UNLV defense-5.9 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.5 pts
Power projection before adjustment-5.9
Altitude · context only637 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.