BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

Murray State

· 1-2 · power -21.1 · #382
Our numberMTSU -29.3 no book has priced this game

Middle Tennessee

CUSA · 1-1 · power -2.2 · #203
Final MUR 14 · MTSU 38 ML W Spread W Total W our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineMTSU to win logged ours 95%

Our number: MTSU by 23.6 — MTSU to win.

Projected score 12–41 MUR – MTSU
2026-09-05 · 7:45 PM Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium · Murfreesboro, TN Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book MUR spreadMTSU spread OverUnder MUR winMTSU win MUR TT overMUR TT under MTSU TT overMTSU TT under
DraftKings — — — —
FanDuel — — — —
BetMGM — — — —
ESPN Bet — — — —
Caesars — — — —

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured in-game spread MUR 54% bets · 57% money ML MTSU 99% bets · 88% money
Series Middle Tennessee lead 2–0 · 2 meetings since 2000
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 88 ranks
Murray State Racers #167 rush offense Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders #79 run defense
Pass game even 19 ranks apart
Murray State Racers #228 pass offense Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders #247 pass defense
Run game edge Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 118 ranks
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders #142 rush offense Murray State Racers #260 run defense
Pass game edge Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 105 ranks
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders #158 pass offense Murray State Racers #263 pass defense
Murray State Racers Balanced · 52% run Avg pace Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Balanced · 42% run Avg pace
Derek Mason · 30-64

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Murray State Racers
DL Jayden Walker 18 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #67 DL
LB Klayton Ingram 22 tkl · 1.5 TFL #132 LB
RB Tyrell Campbell 213 rush yds · 1 TD · 7 rec #108 RB
DB Dylan Rowsey 18 tkl · 1 PD #377 DB
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
WR Cam'ron Lacy 17 rec · 190 yds · 2 TD #37 WR
DB Kalen Woods 13 tkl · 1 PD #59 DB
DL Zeion Simpson-Smith 11 tkl · 1.0 TFL #286 DL
QB Roman Gagliano 443 pass yds · 4 TD · 1 INT #100 QB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Murray State Racers -21.1 -12.8 -8.3 #382
Middle Tennessee Blue RaidersCUSA -2.2 -1.3 -0.9 #203

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Murray State offense vs Middle Tennessee defense-11.9 pts
Middle Tennessee offense vs Murray State defense+7.0 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.