← Matchups

Georgetown

· 0-1 (0-1) · power -20.7 · #379
Our numberCOLG -18.5 no book has priced this game

Colgate

· 2-1 (2-0) · power -5.5 · #249
Our side
MoneylineCOLG to win ours 87%
Projected score 18–36 GTWN – COLG
2026-10-17 · 1:00 PM Andy Kerr Stadium · Hamilton, NY Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Colgate lead 19–2 · 21 meetings since 2003
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 19 ranks apart
Georgetown Hoyas #181 rush offense Colgate Raiders #200 run defense
Pass game even 33 ranks apart
Georgetown Hoyas #251 pass offense Colgate Raiders #218 pass defense
Run game even 6 ranks apart
Colgate Raiders #89 rush offense Georgetown Hoyas #95 run defense
Pass game even 43 ranks apart
Colgate Raiders #112 pass offense Georgetown Hoyas #155 pass defense
Georgetown Hoyas Run-heavy · 60% run Avg pace Colgate Raiders Balanced · 45% run Avg pace

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Georgetown Hoyas
DB Brian Allen 14 tkl #256 DB
DB Michael Bonsu 5 tkl #482 DB
DL Isaac Saffold 7 tkl #729 DL
DL Folu Shobowale 5 tkl · 1.0 TFL #730 DL
Colgate Raiders
LB Christian Magliacano 20 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 4.0 TFL #20 LB
RB Danny Shaban 395 rush yds · 3 TD · 7 rec #15 RB
WR Matt Fogler 13 rec · 231 yds · 3 TD #52 WR
DB Tymir Wynn 14 tkl · 4 PD · 1 INT #160 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Georgetown Hoyas -20.7 -11.4 -9.3 #379
Colgate Raiders -5.5 -4.3 -1.2 #249

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Georgetown offense vs Colgate defense-10.2 pts
Colgate offense vs Georgetown defense+5.0 pts
Altitude · context only303 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
Rest · context onlyHome team on 7 more days rest

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.