Our side · spreadMTSU +13.5loggedour number at the pick MRSH -13.2 · now MRSH -9.2 · 2.3 pts from the market now
Marshall
SBC · 1-1 · power +5.2 · #121
FinalMTSU 26 · MRSH 28ML WSpread WTotal Wour logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
SpreadMTSU +13.5loggedlive now: MTSU +11.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours MRSH -9.2
The market's move decides. The line opened MRSH -15 and is now MRSH -13.5, toward MTSU; since 2021 the side the market moves toward has covered 54.7% at the opener, and our own number has carried nothing the closing line lacks. Our number at the pick: MRSH by 13.2 — the same side.
TotalUnder 57loggedlive now: Over 55.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 57.1
The market's move decides. The total opened 57.5 and is now 57, toward the under; that side has covered 55.1% at the opener since 2021. Ours at the pick: 54.0 — the same side.
MoneylineMRSH to winloggedours 70% · book 79%
Our number: MRSH by 13.2 — MRSH to win.
MTSU team totalMTSU under 20.5loggedlive now: MTSU under 21.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 24.0
Our number: MTSU 20.4, from our margin and total split into two scores.
MRSH team totalMRSH under 34.5loggedours 33.1
Our number: MRSH 33.6, from our margin and total split into two scores.
Distance from the market2.3 pts / +1.6 totala caution, not a signal
Projected score24–33MTSU – MRSH
2026-09-12 · 7:00 PMJoan C. Edwards Stadium · Huntington, WVEarly season
The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book
Book
MTSU spread
MRSH spread
Over
Under
MTSU win
MRSH win
MTSU TT over
MTSU TT under
MRSH TT over
MRSH TT under
DraftKings
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FanDuel
BetMGM
ESPN Bet
Caesars
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The gold price is the best available on that side;
a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick.
TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s;
columns are empty where no book hangs one.
Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked.
Prices are the books’ own.
Ours vs the market
SpreadMarshall -9.2
the marketMarshall -11.5
Total57.1
the market55.5
Marshall win70%
vs 79%
Both percentages are Marshall’s chance to win — ours, then
the book’s with the vig removed, medianed across the books we track.
What the gap has been worth 10,740 games · 2016–2025
0–3 pts52.0%
3–750.2%
7–1449.3%
14+46.8%
How often the side we favoured covered, by how far our number sat from the
market’s. Break-even at −110 is 52.4% — no bucket reaches it, and
the rate falls as we disagree more. The further we sit from the market, the worse
we have done.
Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Networkcaptured in-gamespreadMTSU 52% bets · 65% moneytotalUnder 94% bets · 91% moneyMLMRSH 99% bets · 81% money
Series
Marshall and Middle Tennessee split 10 (5–5)
· 10 meetings since 2013
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run gameedge Marshall Thundering Herd73 ranks
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders #142 rush offenseMarshall Thundering Herd #69 run defense
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Middle Tennessee offense vs Marshall defense-2.7 pts
Marshall offense vs Middle Tennessee defense+4.7 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.