Our side
MoneylineJXST to win
ours 69%
Projected score
21–32
MTSU – JXST
2026-09-26 · 7:00 PM
AmFirst Stadium · Jacksonville, AL
CUSA game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Jacksonville State lead
3–0
· 3 meetings since 2023
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
36 ranks apart
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders #142 rush offense
Jacksonville State Gamecocks #106 run defense
Pass game
edge Jacksonville State Gamecocks
49 ranks
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders #158 pass offense
Jacksonville State Gamecocks #109 pass defense
Run game
even
31 ranks apart
Jacksonville State Gamecocks #48 rush offense
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders #79 run defense
Pass game
edge Jacksonville State Gamecocks
91 ranks
Jacksonville State Gamecocks #156 pass offense
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders #247 pass defense
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Run-heavy · 68% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 83 rush ypg
Derek Mason · 30-64
Charles Kelly · 9-5
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
WR
Cam'ron Lacy
17 rec · 190 yds · 2 TD
#37 WR
DB
Kalen Woods
13 tkl · 1 PD
#59 DB
DL
Zeion Simpson-Smith
11 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#286 DL
QB
Roman Gagliano
443 pass yds · 4 TD · 1 INT
#100 QB
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
DB
Caleb Nix
18 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#18 DB
DL
Tae Floyd
12 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 5.0 TFL
#41 DL
WR
Jamill Williams
14 rec · 188 yds · 4 TD
#33 WR
QB
Caden Creel
677 pass yds · 6 TD · 2 INT
#18 QB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Middle Tennessee offense vs Jacksonville State defense-4.4 pts
Jacksonville State offense vs Middle Tennessee defense+3.0 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.