Our side
MoneylineFIU to win
ours 72%
Projected score
20–31
MTSU – FIU
2026-10-20 · 7:00 PM
Pitbull Stadium · Miami, FL
CUSA game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Middle Tennessee lead
14–7
· 21 meetings since 2005
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
3 ranks apart
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders #142 rush offense
Florida International Panthers #139 run defense
Pass game
even
13 ranks apart
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders #158 pass offense
Florida International Panthers #171 pass defense
Run game
even
10 ranks apart
Florida International Panthers #69 rush offense
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders #79 run defense
Pass game
edge Florida International Panthers
85 ranks
Florida International Panthers #162 pass offense
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders #247 pass defense
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
Florida International Panthers
Balanced · 56% run
Ball-control
Derek Mason · 30-64
Willie Simmons · 7-6
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
WR
Cam'ron Lacy
17 rec · 190 yds · 2 TD
#37 WR
DB
Kalen Woods
13 tkl · 1 PD
#59 DB
DL
Zeion Simpson-Smith
11 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#286 DL
QB
Roman Gagliano
443 pass yds · 4 TD · 1 INT
#100 QB
Florida International Panthers
DL
Elisha Baldridge
11 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#26 DL
WR
Maguire Anderson
13 rec · 186 yds · 2 TD
#34 WR
DL
DeeJay Holmes Jr.
7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#81 DL
WR
Jojo Stone
9 rec · 141 yds · 1 TD
#146 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Middle Tennessee offense vs Florida International defense-6.8 pts
Florida International offense vs Middle Tennessee defense+0.7 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 783 mi
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.