← Matchups

Middle Tennessee

CUSA · 1-1 · power -2.2 · #203
Our numberLIB -7.5 no book has priced this game

Liberty

CUSA · 1-1 · power +2.6 · #144
Our side
MoneylineLIB to win ours 66%
Projected score 21–29 MTSU – LIB
2026-11-14 · 3:30 PM Williams Stadium (VA) · Lynchburg, VA CUSA game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Liberty lead 3–0 · 3 meetings since 2021
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 68 ranks
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders #142 rush offense Liberty Flames #210 run defense
Pass game edge Liberty Flames 45 ranks
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders #158 pass offense Liberty Flames #113 pass defense
Run game even 24 ranks apart
Liberty Flames #55 rush offense Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders #79 run defense
Pass game edge Liberty Flames 76 ranks
Liberty Flames #171 pass offense Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders #247 pass defense
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Balanced · 42% run Avg pace Liberty Flames Run-heavy · 66% run Avg pace
Derek Mason · 30-64 Jamey Chadwell · 64-35

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
WR Cam'ron Lacy 17 rec · 190 yds · 2 TD #37 WR
DB Kalen Woods 13 tkl · 1 PD #59 DB
DL Zeion Simpson-Smith 11 tkl · 1.0 TFL #286 DL
QB Roman Gagliano 443 pass yds · 4 TD · 1 INT #100 QB
Liberty Flames
WR Makai Jackson 5 rec · 142 yds · 2 TD #139 WR
DB Jiquavious Marshall 7 tkl · 4 PD #222 DB
DL Nathan Pirolli 8 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL #305 DL
LB Derrell Farrar 12 tkl · 1.5 TFL #247 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Middle Tennessee Blue RaidersCUSA -2.2 -1.3 -0.9 #203
Liberty FlamesCUSA +2.6 -3.3 +5.9 #144

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Middle Tennessee offense vs Liberty defense-7.2 pts
Liberty offense vs Middle Tennessee defense-2.4 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 412 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.