Our side
MoneylineDEL to win
ours 32%
Projected score
32–22
DEL – MTSU
2026-10-13 · 7:00 PM
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium · Murfreesboro, TN
CUSA game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Delaware lead
1–0
· 1 meeting since 2025
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
122 ranks
Delaware Blue Hens #201 rush offense
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders #79 run defense
Pass game
edge Delaware Blue Hens
125 ranks
Delaware Blue Hens #122 pass offense
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders #247 pass defense
Run game
edge Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
84 ranks
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders #142 rush offense
Delaware Blue Hens #226 run defense
Pass game
even
16 ranks apart
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders #158 pass offense
Delaware Blue Hens #174 pass defense
Delaware Blue Hens
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
Ryan Carty · 7-6 · offense-minded
Derek Mason · 30-64
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Delaware Blue Hens
LB
Colin Gallagher
13 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#46 LB
WR
Da'Wain Lofton
7 rec · 206 yds · 1 TD
#85 WR
RB
Kaderris Roberts
27 rush yds · 1 TD · 4 rec
#109 RB
LB
Gavin Moul
16 tkl · 0.5 TFL
#188 LB
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
WR
Cam'ron Lacy
17 rec · 190 yds · 2 TD
#37 WR
DB
Kalen Woods
13 tkl · 1 PD
#59 DB
DL
Zeion Simpson-Smith
11 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#286 DL
QB
Roman Gagliano
443 pass yds · 4 TD · 1 INT
#100 QB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Delaware offense vs Middle Tennessee defense+7.7 pts
Middle Tennessee offense vs Delaware defense-2.1 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 636 mi
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.