Our side
MoneylineWKU to win
ours 50%
Projected score
28–28
WKU – MTSU
2026-11-07 · 3:30 PM
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium · Murfreesboro, TN
CUSA game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Western Kentucky lead
12–6
· 18 meetings since 2007
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
66 ranks
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers #145 rush offense
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders #79 run defense
Pass game
edge Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
112 ranks
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers #135 pass offense
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders #247 pass defense
Run game
even
21 ranks apart
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders #142 rush offense
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers #121 run defense
Pass game
edge Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
82 ranks
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders #158 pass offense
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers #76 pass defense
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Balanced · 49% run
Avg pace
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
Tyson Helton · 57-36
Derek Mason · 30-64
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
RB
Ajay Allen
121 rush yds · 2 TD · 3 rec
#106 RB
DB
Justin Brown
9 tkl · 1 INT
#319 DB
TE
Coleson Arends
2 rec · 18 yds · 1 TD
#92 TE
DB
Jaylen Lewis
13 tkl
#491 DB
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
WR
Cam'ron Lacy
17 rec · 190 yds · 2 TD
#37 WR
DB
Kalen Woods
13 tkl · 1 PD
#59 DB
DL
Zeion Simpson-Smith
11 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#286 DL
QB
Roman Gagliano
443 pass yds · 4 TD · 1 INT
#100 QB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Western Kentucky offense vs Middle Tennessee defense+6.4 pts
Middle Tennessee offense vs Western Kentucky defense+4.3 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.