Our side
MoneylineMTSU to win
ours 47%
Projected score
25–26
MTSU – SHSU
2026-11-21 · 2:00 PM
Elliott T. Bowers Stadium · Huntsville, TX
CUSA game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Middle Tennessee and Sam Houston split 2 (1–1)
· 2 meetings since 2023
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
65 ranks
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders #142 rush offense
Sam Houston Bearkats #207 run defense
Pass game
edge Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
82 ranks
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders #158 pass offense
Sam Houston Bearkats #240 pass defense
Run game
edge Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
73 ranks
Sam Houston Bearkats #152 rush offense
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders #79 run defense
Pass game
even
12 ranks apart
Sam Houston Bearkats #259 pass offense
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders #247 pass defense
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
Sam Houston Bearkats
Balanced · 50% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 39 rush ypg
Derek Mason · 30-64
Phil Longo · 2-10
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
WR
Cam'ron Lacy
17 rec · 190 yds · 2 TD
#37 WR
DB
Kalen Woods
13 tkl · 1 PD
#59 DB
DL
Zeion Simpson-Smith
11 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#286 DL
QB
Roman Gagliano
443 pass yds · 4 TD · 1 INT
#100 QB
Sam Houston Bearkats
DL
Brody Henderson
11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#94 DL
WR
Chris Reed
7 rec · 145 yds · 2 TD
#94 WR
WR
Grady O'Neill
12 rec · 148 yds · 1 TD
#103 WR
DB
Ishmel Atkins
7 tkl · 4 PD
#254 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Middle Tennessee offense vs Sam Houston defense-0.2 pts
Sam Houston offense vs Middle Tennessee defense-3.4 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 637 mi
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.